Saturday, August 28 the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston will host the lightweight title rematch between “The Answer” Frankie Edgar (12-1) and “The Prodigy” BJ Penn (15-6-1) at UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2. The card features an all star cast including boxing legend “Lights Out” James Toney (0-0), UFC Hall of Fame member and five time multi-divisional UFC champion “The Natural” Randy Couture (18-10), middleweight BJJ ace Demian Maia (11-2), and a lightweight bout between one-time title challenger “KenFlo” Kenny Florian (13-4) and undefeated decision machine “The Bully” Gray Maynard (9-0). Maynard has been campaigning for a title shot for some time now and supports his request with a seven fight win streak that includes names like “El Matador” Roger Huerta (21-4-1), “The Mongoose” Jim Miller (17-2), TUF season five winner Nate Diaz (11-6), and current lightweight belt holder Frankie Edgar. To earn the shot he’s after, he will have to get past “KenFlo”, a man who has finished all but one of the opponents he has faced in his 12 UFC victories. The two men have both maintained active schedules, fighting at least three times a year since 2007, and both men have proven very dominate over fighters of every style and background.
At First Glance: Right out of the gate this match looks bad for Gray Maynard. While both men have an impressive collection of high profile wins, Kenny Florian has finished every opponent he has defeated in the UFC except for Roger Huerta; Maynard hasn’t finished since September 2007. Also, Kenny Florian has had little trouble with wet blanket wrestlers like Maynard. In fact his sole loss against a wrestler came at the hands of “The Muscle Shark” Sean Sherk (33-4-1), who was later busted for steroid use, in 2006. Maynard, on the other hand, has shown a weakness against skilled submission grapplers, often relying on creating scrambles to avoid sweeps and maintain top control.
Inside and Out: This fight is Florian’s to lose. In the past three years, he has faced two stand out wrestlers in recent history, “The Carpenter” Clay Guida (27-11) and “Daddy” Joe Stevenson (31-10), both of whom he finished easily within the halfway mark. He also survived to see the championship rounds against BJ Penn, arguably the best ground fighter in the sport. Add to this Florian’s razor sharp elbows and far superior stand-up and the future looks even darker for Maynard. Gray has also struggled to control skilled grapplers in the past. Against “No Love” Rich Clementi (37-16-1), a mediocre fighter at best, Maynard spent the entire fight defending sweeps and leg locks. He maintained top control and won the decision, but was unable to mount any significant offense during the bout. He had similar issues with Jim Miller. “KenFlo” is a grappler well beyond the kin of these men and has shown an ability to do real damage from the bottom as well. That doesn’t bode well for “The Bully.”
The Wild Card: Gray’s ability to create and win scrambles is always a factor. Several fighters with much more well rounded skill sets and many more offensive weapons have fallen to Maynard. His wrestling and his ability to turn sweeps and submission attempts into brief, fast paced positional battles allow him to use his athleticism to maintain top control against more skilled opponents. Gray has more than enough stamina to scramble all night and if he can prevent Kenny from controlling him from the bottom, he can grind out a damage free decision.
The Verdict: This fight comes down to Maynard’s ability to adapt. Against a fighter with the grappling skill of Florian, he won’t be able to rely on wrestling alone as he has for his entire career. Keeping the fight on the feet favors Florian as well as he has far superior striking to “The Bully.” Unless Maynard has some how managed to develop either world class striking or GSP level top control ground and pound since January he has no chance of scrambling his way to his typical wet blanket decision. Look for Florian to cut Maynard, take his back, and put him to sleep. Florian by RNC in the Second.
