At UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2 “The Answer” Frankie Edgar (12-1) will defend his belt against the man many felt should have retained it in their first match, “The Prodigy” BJ Penn (15-6-1) in front of a sold out crowd in Dana White’s hometown of Boston. This bout is one of the most bizarre in recent memory, not because of the fight itself, but due to the circumstances surrounding it. Edgar won the belt in a decision win that was far more questionable than many others in the past few years, yet for some reason there wasn’t the massive public outcry usually associated with bad judging. This is mainly due to the state of shock everyone was in as a result of Penn’s incredibly lackluster performance against an opponent he was supposed to destroy. This fight has also been all but overshadowed by the hype surrounding the co-main event fight between “The Natural” Randy Couture (18-10) and “Lights Out” James Toney (0-0). In fact, this fight may be the least talked about title fight, and certainly the least talked about title rematch, in UFC history. Never the less it remains an interesting contest between a man widely regarded as one of the most skilled fighters in MMA history and a young champion striving to prove that the belt around his waist belongs there.
At First Glance: Just as it was in the first fight, anyone looking at the surface of this bout sees an easy win for Penn. BJ is easily the more well rounded fighter, and not only that, he is actually superior to Edgar in every aspect of the game. In the first fight, Penn was stiff, slow, and passive and he still won the fight on every scorecard in the country except for the three morons who were seated at cage-side. This time, BJ is out for blood and it appears that Edgar will be the one to shed it.
Inside and Out: Edgar is in a tough spot against Penn. He doesn’t have the wrestling to get Penn down, he doesn’t have the grappling to survive if he gets there, and he doesn’t have the kickboxing to beat Penn on his feet. Edgar won the first fight by stalling. The judges stated that Edgar won because he controlled the pace and thus displayed Octagon control in a fight that was largely damage free. With Penn fighting in his usual form, especially with a chip on his shoulder for having his belt stolen, Frankie isn’t going to be able to sit back and leg kick/jab his way to the judges table in hopes of another gift wrapped decision. On the ground it gets worse, as Penn is an absolute monster on the mat. BJ’s submission game is second to none and Edgar’s base isn’t strong enough to prevent “The Prodigy” from gaining the position necessary to apply those submissions.
The Wild Card: Edgar wants one thing, respect. He won the belt, weather he deserved it or not, and the only thing anyone had to say was that he got lucky, Penn was off his game, and the judges gave him the belt. A fighter with nothing to lose and everything to prove is a dangerous thing. If Edgar loses, all he risks is an “I told you so” from the fans and the media. While you will never see Edgar pull off a flying scissor heel hook, you may well see him put it all on red and gamble his belt on one all out assault.
The Verdict: Edgar desperately wants the respect he feels he’s due as champion. Expect to see that desperation shine through as he goes for broke in an effort to put Penn away. He knows he won’t be able to stall out another decision so that is his only option. Also expect it to not be enough. Penn will embarrass Edgar on the feet before putting him to sleep in whatever fashion he chooses. More than likely, we will all see a repeat of Caol Uno (25-13-5) and “The Muscle Shark” Sean Sherk (34-4-1) when Edgar launches an all out blitz and catches a knee to the chin for his trouble. Penn by KO 1st.
