It’s been three days since Nick Diaz lost to Carlos Condit for the interim UFC welterweight title. Three days of controversy, outrage and suffering…Well, for me it was suffering. I wanted Nick to win. I wanted Nick to fight Georges St. Pierre and to beat him. I wanted the fearless, scrappy kid from Stockton to overthrow the Canadian golden boy and bring some excitement and “fuck you” attitude back to MMA.

However, unlike most Nick Diaz fans, I couldn’t find solace in thinking that the loss was a “robbery” or that Condit just “ran away” the whole fight because both of those sentiments are ridiculous. I’m blessed and cursed with having the ability to see things from a lot of different angles and perspectives and not just the ones that fit into my desired reality. So, it’s not so easy for me to come to terms with certain things without that ability to just ignore certain facts. But after days of absorbing everything that I saw Saturday night as I sat in my awesome seats at Mandalay Bay like a pimp and all the different points of view that fans have shared via that beautiful yet diseased harlot I like to call “the internet”, I’ve got some things worked out. I suffer, struggle, and come up with answers and now share them with you so that you may be saved. Kinda like Jesus… okay, exactly like Jesus.

First, there was the fight itself. Watching live is not the best way to score a fight. You’re constantly looking back and forth between the Octagon and the monitors and you’re inevitably caught up in the moment. Case in point, the first Machida vs. Shogun is a fight I watched live. I gave Shogun a slight edge but thought it was much closer than when I watched it again on TV. So, I gave Condit three rounds to two. That being said, it was a close fight and, more crucially, a very difficult fight to score.

Nick undoubtedly had the aggression but Carlos certainly had what you’d call “Octagon Control” since he mostly kept the fight where HE wanted it – namely away from the fence where Nick could close the distance and beat the shit out of him. Stick and move is not “running away” and Carlos was landing. The stats of the fight show that Condit out-landed Diaz in both total strikes and significant strikes. Diaz took Condit down in the 5th round, had his back and was working for a submission. But Carlos got out and ended up on top in the final seconds and he was winning the stand up before that. So do you give Nick the round for a takedown and submission attempt even though Carlos got out and was winning the first four minutes of the round? These are the kind of things that make this fight so hard to score and why there were so many wildly different opinions on who won which rounds. Maybe if I watch the fight again on TV, I’d score it differently. Actually, I’m sure I would – whether I’d think Diaz or Condit won, who knows? But I’m sure I’d see things I missed live. Either way, you can be pissed that Carlos didn’t go in and throw down and make it a dogfight like we all wanted to see and like he had said he was going to, but it’s absurd to say he ran away, didn’t fight, or that the decision in his favor was a robbery. I read a piece on the fight where the author astutely said that how you feel about the decision comes down to your philosophy on MMA. If you’re a fan of the old school “get it there and throw down and see who’s tougher” view, you likely saw it for Diaz. On the other hand if you appreciate the more subtle intricacies of strategy and game planning to nullify your opponent’s strengths, then you likely think Condit deserved the nod. He’s right but I’m more pragmatic in my view. I love guys who go in there and make it a war and fight to see who’s tougher and better… but I think it’s stupid when guys don’t use any intellect and strategy and stubbornly refuse to adjust their game plan when it’s not working. On the other side, I hate when a fighter does everything in his power to avoid a fight and it becomes all game plan and no fight – like what Anthony Johnson did to Dan Hardy. Take him down, sure but do something once you do.

A big part of what depressed me about the fight was not only would I yet again be denied seeing Diaz fight GSP but I realized that GSP would’ve used the same game plan against Diaz but done it a lot better. I thought my dream of seeing the scrappy kid from Stockton overthrow the golden boy was crushed. But then… an epiphany! I was much like Val Kilmer’s character Chris Knight in “Real Genius” when Kent destroyed his laser but that led him to see that he could freeze the laser and solve the problem that had been vexing him. And yes, I did compare myself to both Jesus Christ and Val Kilmer in “Real Genius” in the same column. How I roll, homie.

Nick, Carlos gave you a gift. He showed you the Greg Jackson game plan. Sure, it cost you a win but you know you’ll fight GSP eventually and now you know what he’s going to do. Whether you fight Condit again or GSP, you know what you have to counter.

(Original photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC. with alterations by SBoI)

It’s amazing how many MMA fans have changed their tune on Nick Diaz. I assume it was the UFC Primetime shows. People who weren’t Diaz fans saw what we Diaz fans always knew. The brawler, whose style can often look like a fist fight in a 7-11 parking lot to the untrained eye, is actually a gifted and disciplined martial artist of the highest order. And the brash “thug” from the mean streets of Stockton is actually a misunderstood, childlike (bordering on autistic) man who values his friends and family and has little interest in the spotlight that often tries to cast him in an inaccurately negative light. Nick is childlike in his purity and lack of pretense. That’s not to say he’s dumb at all. I think Nick is a smart guy who just has trouble communicating and dealing with the pressure of having to be a camera-ready salesman. In a lot of ways he’s still that little kid that pulled the fire alarm but didn’t do it maliciously and doesn’t want to be seen as a “bad kid” because he knows he’s not even though people put that label on him. Primetime did a lot to get that side of Diaz across and at the weigh-ins people were cheering for him and booing Condit. Not because they hated Condit but because they loved Nick.

Now here’s the flip side of that: how Nick reacted to his loss. A lot of people called him a whiny baby; a spoiled sport. And indeed, Nick acted like a petulant brat to his loss. Metaphorically stomping and pouting and crying “nooooo faiiirrrr!” But hey, that’s part of the childlike purity too. Nick keeps it real. You think most fighters don’t feel exactly like that when they lose a controversial decision? But they put on the facade and play diplomat and say “It was close. I shouldn’t have left it in the hands of the judges”, etc. when inside they’re Nick Diazing like a motherfucker screaming “This is some bullshit! I won that fight!”

Love it or hate it, Nick Diaz doesn’t play the game. All he does is train and occasionally smoke some weed and listen to the Joe Rogan podcast and when it comes time to fight, he wants to fight. He has no concern for politics or “the beauty pageant” of press conferences, or safe, strategic game plans. Nick Diaz knows he’s the toughest motherfucker on Earth and he knows he dedicated his whole life to becoming that. So, yes, he gets pissed when someone won’t let him prove that he’s tougher and instead tries to outsmart him with a carefully constructed game plan. And when it works and he loses, he’s going to be even more pissed and think, “maybe I don’t want to do this if this is what it’s about” because that’s not what it’s about for him.

So, Carlos fought a smart, strategic fight not because he’s scared (homie) to go toe to toe with Nick and let the chips fall where they may, but because he knew that would be risky and he wanted to win. Nick Diaz is a whole other animal. He’s not afraid to lose but he wants to fight, to leave it all out there, win or lose. That’s why Nick Diaz is my favorite fighter and totally fucking awesome. But Nick and the fans can’t expect or demand that other fighters fight with Nick’s philosophy. Because that, my friends… that’s whatever.

Carlos Condit (black trunks) defeated Nick Diaz (red trunks) for the UFC Interim Welterweight Championship at UFC 143, besting him in nearly every category on the score cards and showing himself to clearly be the superior stand-up fighter and tactician. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

The night of fights at UFC 143 has come to an end and its time again to examine which fighters furthered their careers, which fighters hurt their careers, and which fighters need to make a serious change in order to reverse the damage they caused themselves with The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. “Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (28-5) led Nick Diaz (26-9) around the Octagon as if he had him on a string, punishing him the entire time for a clear cut Unanimous Decision win for the newly minted Interim UFC Welterweight Championship belt. “Via Cavalo” Fabricio Werdum (15-5-1) made a successful return to the UFC by battering “Big Country” Roy Nelson (16-7) on the feet for three solid rounds. “Kos” Josh Koscheck (17-5) managed to squeeze out an uneventful Split Decision over Mike Pierce (10-4). Renan Barao (28-1) extended his total MMA win streak to 28 with a third UFC victory, this time over “Young Guns” Scott Jorgensen (12-4), and “Short Fuse” Ed Herman (18-8) recorded the main card’s only finish by submitting Clifford Starks (5-1).

The Good:

Carlos Condit: Winning a major title, even an interim major title, is clear evidence that a fighter has advanced his standing in the division and value to the company. Condit took that a step further against Nick Diaz by winning handily over a heavy favorite with a ton of hype behind him. According to Fight Metric, Condit out-landed Diaz 151-109 in significant strikes, 68-6 in kicks, and even more impressively 151 of his 159 total strikes were significant, showing a strong edge in efficiency. The fans may not have liked the decision, but Condit won on all three judges’ cards, on Dana White’s card, and on every major MMA media outlet’s cards as well.

Fabricio Werdum: Four years ago, Werdum was drummed out of the UFC after going 2-2 without registering any truly impressive performances. Then he went to Strikeforce and became the Fedor Killer before losing one of the most boring fights since the Dance in Detroit. He did however earn his place in the UFC after the Strikeforce heavyweights were merged into the organization and made a triumphant return against Roy Nelson. Werdum dominated Roy on the feet with knees and hooks. He also managed to run the show on the mat against his fellow BJJ black belt and earned a Unanimous Decision, a “Fight of the Night” bonus, and a prime position to make a run at UFC gold.

Renan Barao: Though just 10-1 in sanctioned competition, Renan Barao currently has one of the most impressive overall records in the game. At 28-1 with one No Contest, he stands unbeaten in 28 fights, went 2-0 in the WEC, and is now 3-0 in the UFC. His striking was worlds beyond anything Scott Jorgensen had to offer and he cleanly dominated their three-round tilt, making big strides toward the UFC Bantamweight Championship.

Ed Herman: Ed Herman continues to impress following a return from major knee surgery. Now 3-0 with three stoppages since his return, “Short Fuse” has found his renaissance. His most recent victim, Clifford Starks, was an undefeated prospect with high-level wrestling who Herman dominated in every aspect of the game prior to locking in a fight-ending Rear Naked Choke in the second frame. With greatly improved striking and a renewed focus on his fighting, Ed Herman is quickly separating himself from the gatekeepers he has bumped elbows with his whole UFC career.

The Bad:

Josh Koscheck: According to two of the three judges, Josh Koscheck won his bout against Mike Pierce. According to at least 75% of the MMA blogosphere and the neutral scientific fight analysis at Fight Metric, Pierce won. Unfortunately most fans won’t have a reliable opinion because the fight literally bored some spectators at the Mandalay Bay Event Center to sleep. Koscheck did little more than repeatedly poke Pierce in the eyes with open-handed feeler jabs for three rounds as the two pinned each other to the cage in failed takedown attempts, only to separate and throw off-target single punches at one another. Koscheck landed only 21 of 81 strikes, missing on nearly 75% of his strikes. The less than impressive, debatable win will not do much to further Koscheck’s title hopes.

Mike Pierce: Pierce was the second, losing half in one of the biggest stinkers in recent UFC history. Being in any way involved in a bout that results in photographic evidence of fans falling asleep at the venue is a detriment to a fighter’s career, especially when said fighter is the one walking out with a loss. Pierce achieves 46% of his victories – 66% of his UFC victories – via decision. That doesn’t hurt him as long as he wins, but the UFC harbors little love for unexciting, losing fighters.

Scott Jorgensen: “Young Guns” is one of those unfortunate souls who came from a very strong wrestling background then one day believed the commentator’s hype about his greatly improved striking. With confidence boosted by besting a few BJJ guys on the feet, Jorgensen walked into the Muay Thai buzz saw that is Renan Barao looking to keep the fight standing. He learned quickly that this was a bad idea, but unfortunately his recent focus on stand-up ensured that his wrestling was just rusty enough to fail him in all of his seven takedown attempts. Jorgensen was considered a top contender for the bantamweight crown, but now he needs to make some serious adjustments just to remain competitive.

Clifford Starks: Starks was in over his head. It’s as simple as that. Ed Herman had the undefeated young prospect beat on every level. While making it to the UFC is never a bad thing, Starks got there quickly and now has to face the best of the best in MMA without those critical dozen or so fights where a fighter learns his weaknesses, makes his mistakes, and adjusts his game accordingly. When Starks couldn’t out-wrestle Herman, he became a deer in headlights with no idea how to handle the situation.

The Ugly:

Nick Diaz: Hype is a dangerous thing. One day, Nick Diaz is widely seen as the man to beat UFC welterweight king “Rush” Georges St. Pierre (22-2) and is touted by the Zuffa machine as the best boxer in the division, the next day he is the guy who pitched a fit and threatened to retire after dropping a five-round decision to a guy that was a big underdog. Diaz lost hands down on every card that even remotely matters and he didn’t lose just the fight, he lost the hype and a ton of respect with his take-my-ball-and-go-home post-fight speech. If there were any remaining doubts that GSP would have completely dominated Nick Diaz, Carlos Condit’s use of superior footwork, tactics, and striking just erased them. It wasn’t just a loss or the end of a winning streak, the loss means that Diaz is no longer the chosen one of the hardcore fans; he is just another talented welterweight.

Roy Nelson: Roy’s improved fitness and training ethics have done wonders for him. Now he just needs to cut to light heavyweight before he uses up Dana White’s remaining good graces. Werdum, not an overly large heavyweight by any means, dwarfed “Big Country” and easily muscled the former IFL champ around the cage. By the midpoint of the fight, Nelson was gassed not because of his cardio or even because of the damage Werdum did with strikes – he was gassed because he had been clinch fighting with a much larger, stronger man for seven minutes. It’s time for “Big Country” to turn himself into “Medium Country” before his career becomes “Not in the UFC”.

Click here for the full list of UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit results.

Dustin Poirier (red gloves) finished Max Holloway (blue gloves) with a vicious Arm-Triangle, taking home the victory and "Submission of the Night" honors. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

The following fight bonuses were awarded for UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit

Submission of the Night:

Dustin Poirier (over Max Holloway) receives $65,000

Knockout of the Night:

Stephen Thompson (over Dan Stittgen) receives $65,000

Fight of the Night:

Roy Nelson and Fabricio Werdum each receive $65,000

Tonight's UFC 143 main event sees Nick Diaz (left) square off with Carlos Condit (right) for the UFC Interim Welterweight Championship. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

—MAIN CARD (on Pay-Per-View)—

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Condit via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46), Round 5, 5:00

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Werdum via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27), Round 3, 5:00

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28), Round 3, 5:00

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Barao via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27), Round 3, 5:00

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 2, 1:43

—PRELIMS (on FX)—

Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway: Poirier via Submission (Triangle Armbar), Round 1, 3:23

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa: Figueroa via Split Decision (28-27, 27-28, 28-27), Round 3, 5:00

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope: Brown via KO (Punches), Round 2, 1:19

Matthew Riddle vs. Henry Martinez: Riddle via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28), Round 3, 5:00

—PRELIMS (on Facebook)—

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper: Natal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28), Round 3, 5:00

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson: Thompson via KO (Head Kick), Round 1, 4:13

(Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to its stomping grounds at the Mandalay Bay Event Center in Las Vegas, Nevada tomorrow night to present UFC 143, a card packed with world class talent including emerging prospects and top contenders alike. Kicking off the main card festivities on Pay-Per-View is a middleweight bout between TUF alum “Short Fuse” Ed Herman (17-8) and undefeated Arizona native Clifford Starks (5-0). Former bantamweight title challenger “Young Guns” Scott Jorgensen (12-3) takes to the cage next with the intentions of putting a stop to Renan Barao’s (27-1) impressive 27-fight win streak. Trashtalker extraordinaire and staple of the UFC’s welterweight division “Kos” Josh Koscheck (16-5) faces a fellow NCAA Div. I wrestler in heavy-handed Mike Pierce (10-3). The evening’s sole heavyweight match-up sees former IFL champion “Big Country” Roy Nelson (16-6) welcome renowned BJJ practitioner “Vai Cavalo” Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1) back to the UFC’s Octagon after a three-year hiatus. Saturday’s UFC 143 main event boasts a pairing that will make history in the 170lbs. weight class as former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz (26-8) and former WEC champ “Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (27-5) vie for the UFC Interim Welterweight Championship title.

With a night full of possibilities ahead, the staff of MMA Gospel determines what may be in the cards for UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit.

Dan Griffin, MMA Gospel CEO

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Condit via Unanimous Decision
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Nelson via TKO (Strikes), Round 2
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via TKO (Punches), Round 1
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Jorgensen via Unanimous Decision
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via TKO (Strikes), Round 2

Mallory Mejia, MMA Gospel Editor-in-Chief

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Diaz via Unanimous Decision
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Nelson via TKO (Punches), Round 2
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via Unanimous Decision
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Jorgensen via Split Decision
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via TKO (Strikes), Round 2

Spilled Bag of Ice, MMA Gospel Columnist/MMA Gospel Radio Host

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Diaz via Submission (Armbar), Round 3
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Nelson via TKO (Punches), Round 2
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via Unanimous Decision
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Barao via Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 3
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via TKO (Punches), Round 3

TJ Martinez, MMA Gospel Staff Writer

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Diaz via Unanimous Decision
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Nelson via (T)KO (Strikes), Round 3
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via Unanimous Decision
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Jorgensen via Split Decision
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via Submission (Kimura), Round 1

Patrick Guera, MMA Gospel Staff Writer

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Diaz via Submission (Triangle Choke), Round 4
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Werdum via Unanimous Decision
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via (T)KO (Punches), Round 1
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Jorgensen via Unanimous Decision
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via Submission (Guillotine Choke), Round 2

Cole Moorman., MMA Gospel Staff Writer

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Condit via Unanimous Decision
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Werdum via Split Decision
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Pierce via Unanimous Decision
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Jorgensen via TKO (Punches), Round 1
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via KO (Punch), Round 2

Matt Homeyer, MMA Gospel Staff Writer

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Condit via TKO (Punches), Round 4
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Nelson via KO (Punch), Round 2
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via TKO (Punches), Round 2
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Jorgensen via Unanimous Decision
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via KO (Punches), Round 2

SBoI’s Randomly Generated Picks

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit: Condit via (T)KO, Round 1
Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: Werdum via (T)KO, Round 3
Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Koscheck via Decision
Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: Barao via (T)KO, Round 2
Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Herman via Decision

(Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

—MAIN CARD (on Pay-Per-View)—

Nick Diaz: 169lbs.
Carlos Condit: 169lbs.

Roy Nelson: 246lbs.
Fabricio Werdum: 246lbs.

Josh Koscheck: 170lbs.
Mike Pierce: 170lbs.

Renan Barao: 136lbs.
Scott Jorgensen: 135lbs.

Ed Herman: 185lbs.
Clifford Starks: 185lbs.

—PRELIMS (on FX)—

Dustin Poirier: 146lbs.
Max Holloway: 144lbs.

Alex Caceres: 136lbs.
Edwin Figueroa: 135lbs.

Matt Brown: 171lbs.
Chris Cope: 171lbs.

Matthew Riddle: 170lbs.
Henry Martinez: 169lbs.

—PRELIMS (on Facebook)—

Rafael Natal: 186lbs.
Michael Kuiper: 183lbs.

Dan Stittgen: 170lbs.
Stephen Thompson: 171lbs.

Carlos Condit (black trunks) isn't the more well rounded fighter in his UFC 143 match, but he is one of the rare welterweights who can match both Nick Diaz's striking ability and his reach.(Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

The UFC returns to its familiar five-bout Pay-Per-View format Saturday as UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit hits the air waves from the Mandalay Bay Event Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. After the prelim fighters finish their business on Facebook and FX, the PPV portion of the broadcast will open with a bout between middleweight TUF alum “Short Fuse” Ed Herman (17-8) and undefeated prospect Clifford Starks (5-0). Next up, a bantamweight affair hits the cage as WEC mainstay “Young Guns” Scott Jorgensen (12-3) squares off with Renan Barao (27-1). For the anchor and co-main, “Kos” Josh Koscheck (16-5) will face Mike Pierce (10-3) and heavyweights Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1) and “Big Country” Roy Nelson (16-6) will throw their weight around the Octagon. Even with such a strong supporting card, all eyes will still be on the main event fight for the Interim UFC Welterweight Championship. In one corner, controversial former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz (26-8), in the other, former WEC champion “Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (27-5).  

At First Glance: Both of these men were promised title shots against welterweight king “Rush” Georges St. Pierre (22-2). Both men were denied their shot, Diaz due to his own failure to respect the UFC’s wishes regarding pre-fight behavior and Condit due to an injury to the champ himself. Instead, the welterweights will fight for the interim title, a belt that serves as a place holder for the number one contender in the absence of the true champion. Fate has delivered the promised title shot denied each man and has given the fans an opportunity to see two of the most effective strikers in the division go toe to toe for UFC gold.

In Depth: Like many anticipated MMA bouts, this fight is a classic match-up. The difference though is it is a classic boxing match-up: the technician versus the brawler. Diaz has a solid jab and uses his reach well not only to control distance but to deal damage. The rest of his stand-up, however, is rudimentary at best, relying on heavy-handed, wide hooks and leaning, over-extended crosses. These function well for him for two reasons, his jab keeps his opponent distracted and MMA strikers rarely posses the needed striking abilities to deal with his reach and hand speed. Unfortunately for Diaz, Condit is an exceptionally skilled technical kickboxer who knows how to deal with Diaz’s aggressive and damaging style and can also match his reach and speed. This puts the “209″ native in an unfamiliar position. He is facing a technically superior striker who won’t be intimidated by his aggression and doesn’t have to worry about fighting from the outside. Diaz will be at a disadvantage standing, a situation he isn’t accustomed to.

Nick Diaz (blue gloves) has superior grappling and cardio when compared to Carlos Condit, but his weakness in the area of wrestling may force him to stand and give Condit an even playing field. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

The Stockton brawler does have an ace in the hole, however. His ground game is several steps above that of Condit. Both men have wrestling that is best described as serviceable, but Diaz is not only a BJJ black belt to Carlos’ purple, he also is a Sambo expert and has one of the most respected closed guards in the business. Should the fight go to the ground, Condit will find it difficult to simply survive long enough to stand the match back up. Should Diaz successfully pull guard or secure a takedown against the “Natural Born Killer”, he could end the fight in short order.

Wild Card: Diaz has a quality that even some of the elite MMA fighters in the world lack. He isn’t just a natural fighter, he’s a bred fighter. Diaz was fighting for his life literally since he was a young child and that grants a fighter more than just a hunger to win, it gives them an instinctive need to win built from years of either winning or facing serious life threatening injury. Like many of the blue chip prospects out of depressed third world countries like Brazil, Diaz was battle hardened from a young age and it gives him a killer instinct that is second to none.

The Verdict: Diaz has the skill on the mat to end the fight and the toughness, both natural and developed, to last on the feet. He also has the proven cardio to go five rounds. Those will be key assets to his arrival at the judges’ decision, but they likely won’t win him the fight. His stand-up is geared toward fighting from a distance where takedowns are difficult to secure and Condit is more than capable of defeating him. Condit via Unanimous Decision

“Big Country” Roy Nelson’s (right) physique might not be typical of a world class fighter but with formidable Jiu-Jitsu and one-punch knockout power, he is more than prepared to take on top heavyweight, Fabricio Werdum come Saturday night. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

This Saturday UFC 143 is live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center from Las Vegas, Nevada. Clifford Starks (5-0) will try to keep his undefeated streak intact against the always dangerous “Short Fuse” Ed Herman (17-8). Renan Barao (27-1) and “Young Guns” Scott Jorgensen (12-3) prepare to engage in a bantamweight showdown with title implications sure to follow. Welterweight action goes down mid-card as “Kos” Josh Koscheck (16-5) meets with fellow wrestler Mike Pierce (10-3). Easily two of the top welterweights headline the card as “Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (27-5) and Nick Diaz (26-8) duke it out in order to seize the interim title. In the co-main event, “Big Country” Roy Nelson (16-5) will look to chain together another win as he takes on fellow heavyweight “Vai Cavalo” Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1). Werdum is looking to reestablish himself within the UFC ranks after his tenure in Strikeforce but with Nelson looking to do the same, these heavyweight juggernauts are likely to go all out to prevent their own plans from being snuffed.

At First Glance:  The Strikeforce heavyweights have been assimilated into the UFC’s roster and if what “Big” Lavar Johnson (13-5) did this past Saturday proves anything, it is that the Strikeforce titans are no pushovers. That said, the second transplant making the jump is former UFC veteran and Jiu-Jitsu fighter extraordinaire Fabricio Werdum. The Strikeforce veteran might be coming off a lackluster loss but when four of his last five victories have been way of (T)KO and submission, he still stands as a dangerous threat within the cage. Roy Nelson has been riding the wave of mediocrity since his debut in the UFC but with a huge turnaround in his recent performance against “Cro Cop” Mirko Filipovic (27-11-2), it seems the former IFL champ is focused on the task with his intentions to hit the top ranks. Unlike his past opponents, Nelson will have to contend with a fighter whose ground skills are just as apt as his own along with the striking to keep him game.

While he has the farther reach, better cardio, and arguably better Jiu-Jitsu, Fabricio Werdum (gray trunks) does not own the instantaneous stopping power as Roy Nelson. Werdum will have to quickly ground Nelson or exhaust him to be successful in his UFC return. (Photo courtesy of Sherdog)

In Depth: The life and times of Roy Nelson have been hot and cold since his time in the UFC. After dropping two losses in a row to former and current champs, Frank Mir (16-5) and “Cigano” Junior Dos Santos (14-1), Nelson tackled the issue of his signature rotund figure to aid the conditioning deficit that caused these losses. The results showed with flying colors when a slimmer Nelson stepped in and sent Mirko Filipovic into retirement via technical knockout at UFC 137 in October 2011. Immediately, the MMA community will pinpoint Werdum’s chances against “Big Country” on two aspects based off his last two performances. Most recently, Werdum dropped a Unanimous Decision to “Demolition Man” Alistair Overeem (34-12) in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix where, while he out-struck the K-1  champion, he took the harder shots and vied to pull guard repeatedly. Of course there is also one of the most epic moments in MMA history where he became the first man to legitimately defeat “The Last Emperor” Fedor Emelianenko (33-4) via Triangle-Armbar submission when he was able to lure the Russian into a ground war in which he ultimately came out the victor, a credit to his high level Jiu-Jitsu. Nelson boasts one-punch knockout power which could lead Werdum to seek pulling guard incessantly again as with Overeem but should the fight turn into a Jiu-Jitsu exhibition, “Vai Cavalo” could very well have the edge just as he did with Emelianenko.

Wild Card: Once again, it will be Nelson’s weight that has to come into play. Conditioning is an obvious consideration but this time it will be how well Nelson can utilize his loss in size. Nelson’s excess weight added leverage and covered more space in order to hold his opposition; with the slight loss, Nelson’s smaller than normal frame could call for a new approach to how he manages his Jiu-Jitsu.  This is not to say that Werdum is spared from Nelson’s girth. “Big Country” might not be the biggest  fighter he has fought but he certainly is a different frame than Werdum has faced recently. Jiu-Jitsu is an art that promotes that even the smaller guy can outwork a larger man but with Nelson, Werdum will have to cover more ground while in guard whilst battling with an equally dangerous practitioner.

The Verdict:  If there had to be advantages given out, it would be fair to say Werdum’s comfort zone is on the mat looking for the submission while the stand-up department will go to Nelson. At this point is where the tiny details come into play. To Werdum’s dismay, Nelson is a solid grappler and for Nelson, Werdum’s striking is thoroughly improving. What stands out though is that Nelson holds one-pucnh knockout power over Werdum.  Despite a significant reach advantage, unless Werdum can add variability to his striking and tire out Nelson from range, he will find himself at constant risk of a big right hand. On the mat, Werdum is world class, but it is unlikely that he can overcome “Big Country’s” size abilities on the floor from the bottom. This means he needs a clean takedown to get on top, which is not his specialty and again leaves an opening for the big right hand. Nelson via TKO (Strikes), Round 2

Mike Pierce (white trunks) will look to use angles, footwork, and counter wrestling to score another upset win at UFC 143 over former top welterweight contender Josh Koscheck. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

On February 4, a UFC Interim Welterweight Champion will be crowned as Strikeforce welterweight king and MMA bad boy Nick Diaz (26-8) faces off with former WEC Welterweight Champion “Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (27-5) in the UFC 143 main event. Supporting the potential slug fest of a title fight is the return of UFC and Strikeforce veteran “Vai Cavalo” Fabricio Werdum (14-5) against “Big Country” Roy Nelson (16-6) of IFL fame in a heavyweight tilt. A battle between two WEC 135lbs. veterans will take place as Renan Barao (27-1) looks to become a title contender by defeating former top contender “Young Guns” Scott Jorgensen (12-3). The reborn “Short Fuse” Ed Herman (17-8) is looking not only for his third straight victory but his third straight finish as he takes on Clifford Starks (5-0) in the main card opening fight on Pay-Per-View. Anchoring the card is former welterweight title contender and TUF Season 1 veteran “Kos” Josh Koscheck (16-5) returning after his TKO win over UFC legend and former 170lbs. champion Matt Hughes (43-9) to tee off with heavy-handed Team Quest fighter Mike Pierce (10-3) in match-up that pits two NCAA Div. I wrestlers against one another with a chance to move up the ranks in arguably the UFC’s most competitive division on the line.

At First Glance: With the game of musical chairs being played  in the matchmaking of the UFC’s welterweight division, there have been some questions as to who will emerge as top contender and title challenger, and a shortage of names on that list. Koscheck’s original opponent was to be the now interim title fighter Carlos Condit but due to UFC Welterweight Champion “Rush” Georges St. Pierre’s (22-2) ‘s knee surgery that changed. Condit moved up to face GSP’s scheduled opponent Nick Diaz and Koscheck was left with no one to fight, but the voice of Mike Pierce spoke through the fog and expressed his desire to square off with the former title contender “Kos”. The UFC powers that be gave their blessing, and now Koscheck and Pierce will meet inside the Octagon to put on a show for millions of MMA fans worldwide.

In Depth: Josh Koscheck brings three things to a fight: a big right hand, impressive wrestling credentials, and smack talk that can rival that of any WWE superstar. Mike Pierce brings a solid, well-rounded game as well as an attitude and a wrestling pedigree that can measure up to Koscheck’s own.  The question is can Pierce avoid the right hand of Koscheck and keep the fight in his favor? The AKA fighter Koscheck can end a fight with one punch and opponents such as “Twinkle Toes” Frank Trigg (20-8) and Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-6) can attest to the truth of that sentiment. However, that mindset has been a detriment to “Kos” in the past. When he abandoned his wrestling against St. Pierre, he had his face jabbed into paste for five rounds. When he chose to stand with Paulo Thiago (10-3), he was left seeing stars. Koscheck also has displayed a startling tendency to crack under pressure when fights aren’t going his way. That being said, “Kos” is the hands down superior wrestler and has the cardio to push the fight at a torrid pace. If he goes to his wrestling roots, it will be an uphill battle for his opponent. Pierce does have something to offer as a dark horse. He is very good at making his foes fight his fight. He canceled out Brock Larson’s (31-6) wrestling, he bested “The Gentleman” Paul Bradley (16-4) twice, and he finished Kenny Robertson (10-1) with strikes all because he had the kind of varied skill set that lets him effectively shut down other, more specialized game plans. Pierce needs to apply the pressure, use angles, batter the lead leg with short kicks, and use the jab as much as possible. If he can stay to Koscheck’s left and avoid the right hand, he will likely see the former title contender become frustrated and begin to unravel. For Koscheck, he needs to get Pierce’s back to the cage and force a brawl so he can place a well timed right to his dome. Koscheck is a heavy favorite to win against the up-and-coming contender but he had better not get lazy or he will be in for a long night. Pierce has virtually nothing to lose and will be going all out, demanding the same from the AKA stand-out.

Wild Card: Koscheck has what it takes to steal the night from Pierce. Should he go back to his wrestling roots he has the overwhelming advantage despite Pierce’s similar credentials. Koscheck cancelled out and man handled “Semtex” Paul Daley (26-12) for their entire bout at UFC 113. He can and will do it again if he feels Pierce is too much too soon in the fight. If the bout touches the mat then it will be all “Kos” from that point forward.

The Verdict: Koscheck and Pierce both have the attitudes of “I will fight anyone at any time” and that is what makes for good fights. Pierce will have to stay on the attack and avoid the right hand and takedown of Koscheck. Koscheck just needs to land one shot but if Pierce can find his groove, he should be able to score another upset win over a top-level talent. Pierce via Unanimous Decision

Bearing stiff hands with the wrestling to boot, Scott Jorgensen (front) stands a better chance than those before him when he faces Renan Barao in what could very well be a title eliminator for the bantamweight strap.  (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

Las Vegas, Nevada plays hosts again for mixed martial arts action when the UFC unleashes what could already be one of their most pivotal cards of the year with UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit. Middleweights kick off the card when “Short Fuse” Ed Herman (17-8) battles Clifford Starks (5-0). Mike Pierce (10-3)  is looking to jump into the higher ranks of the welterweight division, but he will have to go through “Kos” Josh Koscheck (16-5)  in order to do so. In the co-main event, heavyweights take the stage as “Big Country” Roy Nelson (16-6) welcomes back one of the top submission artists in mixed martial arts, “Vai Cavalo” Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1). The welterweight title picture is sure to change as “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (27-5) and former Strikeforce champion Nick Diaz (26-8) battle for the interim welterweight title. Traces of the WEC make itself known though in the middle of all this action as Renan Barao (27-1) and “Young Guns” Scott Jorgensen (12-3) collide. Each have made their own strides within the bantamweight division but the time has come for these two to meet in what could ensure a chance at gold in the future.

At First Glance: While the addition of the bantamweight division in the UFC has certainly been exciting, the talent pool available to challenge current 135lbs. king “The Dominator” Dominick Cruz (18-1) is rather limited. The silver lining to this problem is that with a spectacular performance a prospect can jump into contender status and a contender to the next challenger for gold overnight. Enter Renan Barao and Scott Jorgensen. Barao may be under the radar compared to his opposition but with an impressive 27-fight win streak that is supported by a well-rounded game, he is very on the cusp on making his own title aspirations come to light. A former PAC-10 wrestler who picked up a hard hitting stand-up game, Jorgensen once had his chance at gold but fell short against the champ. If he could latch a third victory in a row at the expense of a fast-rising star in the division, he could set himself as the only remaining contender at the moment for Cruz.

In Depth: Jorgensen and Barao have grown to become punishing stand-up artists in their own right but be it one punch from Jorgensen or Barao’s knee, at some point one fighter will flinch to where they seek to bring the fight to their comfort zone on the mat, where control becomes the name of the game. The Jiu-Jitsu black belt Barao would enjoy the submission edge over “Young Guns” easily provided he can hold the former title challenger down or scramble quickly into the submission just as he did with Brad Pickett (19-6) and Chris Cariaso (12-3). Considering that Barao’s recent opponents have been stand-up artists or Jiu-Jitsu practitioners who are game to roll with him, just how well he can fare with a high level wrestler can make-or-break this fight for the Brazilian. Jorgensen has been in his fair share of shootouts in the WEC but since debuting with the UFC his wrestling has provided him smooth sailings with a knockout win from Ken Stone’s (10-3)  guard and complete control of Jiu-Jitsu whiz “Big Frog” Jeff Curran (35-14-1). Should Jorgensen’s endeavors on the feet come up short, he could find solace in grinding Barao on the ground for three rounds or until the opportunity to finish presents itself.

Wild Card: The issue of control on the ground will remain prevalent always between a wrestler and a Jiu-Jitsu specialist but for Barao, he also has to mind the pressure Jorgensen will look to imply in the rounds’ start. Barao lacks the technicality of striking like his training partner “Junior” Jose Aldo (19-1) but with a heavy willingness to throw with the power to back it up, it keeps him a threat at all times to be weary of. Jorgensen has a stiff jab and can apply it to push himself inside to tie up with the Brazilian and seek a takedown or work against the cage. If Barao is too generous in giving Jorgensen ground to work with, he will get an impromptu lesson in wrestling whether he wants to or not.

The Verdict:  UFC 143 is  a stacked card but this bout between Jorgensen and Barao could easily stand out with “Fight of the Night” potential riding behind it. Both men have solid chins that will keep them up and going should they engage in a firefight or find themselves in the weeds. On the ground, it will turn into a battle of who is the better master of their own art as Jorgensen’s wrestling will attempt to tame the Jiu-Jitsu  of Barao. Considering that these two have been to wars and their losses have come only by way of decision, it is hard to see the other indefinitely stopping the other. Barao is lethal but Jorgensen has proven that he can take a hit but also exhibit respectable submission defense while implementing his own gameplan. It will be a battle of inches but Jorgensen should see himself closer to a title shot with Barao’s win streak snapped. Jorgensen via Split Decision

Last week, Ed Perdomo and Johnny Rodriguez covered passing the guard on the high side. This week, Ed will build off of that maneuver with a Spinning Straight Armbar.  The Armbar is a simple technique that not only follows the natural momentum of the guard pass, but also plays into the opponent’s natural reaction to having his guard passed in this manner. We will start with the last image from last week’s article to provide reference and to serve as a chance to remind practitioners of a few key positions coming out of the pass.

Ed has passed Johnny’s guard and is preparing to spin into the Armbar position (LEFT). Before he starts the spin, Ed makes certain that his outside foot is under Johnny’s shoulder near the armpit. This not only makes sure Ed will sit close enough to the shoulder when he finishes the Armbar, it also helps to prevent Johnny from rolling into the technique to prevent the submission.

Next Ed spins in place, swinging his inside leg behind himself and around Johnny’s head (RIGHT). As he turns, Ed uses his hand to push against Johnny’s leg, helping further prevent him from rolling into Ed’s legs. Ed also pushes his shin against Johnny’s rib cage to ensure that his leg is between Johnny’s elbow and the rest of his body.

When Ed comes about, he brings his foot as close to Johnny’s head as possible. This isolates Johnny’s head and arm between his legs. Ed then squats down and collects Johnny’s arm at the elbow with his outside hand and at the wrist with his inside hand (LEFT).

Once he has control of the arm, Ed moves to trap it. First, he holds Johnny’s arm tight to his chest and stands, pulling the arm up with him. Second, Ed makes a quarter turn into Johnny, keeping his feet in place. This traps Johnny’s arm between Ed’s thighs (RIGHT). Finally, Ed squeezes Johnny’s arm tight between his knees and sits to the mat as close to his shoulder as possible.

Ed then finishes the submission by lying back, turning Johnny’s thumb away from his chest, and extending his hips (LEFT). Important things to note in this position are the fact that Ed’s outside foot is tucked tightly under Johnny’s head by the spin and that his inside leg is between Johnny’s shoulder and head. With this position, Johnny’s head and arm are totally isolated, preventing him from trying to roll into the Armbar and clasp his hands in defense.

Recap:

1. When you exit the guard pass, make sure your foot is as deep in your opponent’s armpit as possible.
2. Spin your inside leg behind you and around your opponent’s head, making sure that your stationary outside leg is between your opponent’s rib cage and elbow.
3. With your inside foot as close to your opponent’s head as possible, squat and collect their arm.
4. Stand up, bringing the arm with you, and make a quarter turn into your opponent to trap the head and arm.
5. Sit to the mat as close to your opponent’s shoulder as possible, squeeze with your knees, lie back, and finish the submission by extending your hips.

This Armbar takes a fair amount of practice to get down pat, but it is a very viable option against wrestlers, who will want to turn into you for a single during the scramble, and strikers, who will be looking to flip over and get to their feet. In both cases, the opponent’s natural reaction is to turn in a direction favorable to your attack. Next week, Ed will pass the guard on the low side and move into side mount.

 *Ed Perdomo is a 4th degree black belt in the Korean grappling art of Hapkido and is head instructor of the Hapkido Institute in Morris, Illinois.

Ed Herman (white trunks) is far more experienced than his UFC 143 opponent Clifford Starks and holds key advantages in every area of the fight game. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)

Following up a strong network TV debut at UFC on FOX 2 last Saturday, the UFC returns to Pay-Per-View for UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit. The promotion’s first full network TV card fell short of many fans’ expectations, but it dominated the ratings and UFC 143 will provide the first measuring stick for how the more than five million fans exposed to the sport for free will affect the PPV buy rates. Headlining the card is Nick Diaz (26-8) as he faces “Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (27-5) for the Interim UFC Welterweight Championship. Stepping into the co-main slot is a heavyweight showdown between returning Fedor killer “Vai Cavalo” Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1) and “Big Country” Roy Nelson (16-6). “Kos” Josh Koscheck (16-5) will anchor the card against the always dangerous Mike Pierce (10-3) and WEC bantamweight stalwart “Young Guns” Scott Jorgensen (12-3) will put his heavy hands to the test against submission machine Renan Barao (27-1). Opening the PPV card, fans will find “Short Fuse” Ed Herman (17-8) who looks to continue his renaissance with a third straight UFC win by defeating undefeated Clifford Starks (5-0).       

At First Glance: Ed Herman placed a 1-3 mark in the four bouts prior to his major knee injury but has made a solid return to the Octagon following his nearly two-year hiatus. Since his return in June of 2011, “Short Fuse” has punched out two straight impressive first-round wins. For now, momentum is a big part of the Team Quest TUF alum’s appeal. Across from him Clifford Starks has the distinct confidence of an undefeated fighter and has already dealt with his Octagon jitters by handing Dustin Jacoby (6-1) his first loss in a three-round Unanimous Decision at UFC 137. The match saw the Div. I wrestler control his foe on the mat with easy single-legs and high pressure top control. The match means the same for both men: it’s a change to earn a high profile win and build a noticeable winning streak to move them up the ranks.

In Depth: Both of these men have similar skill sets and styles. They are wrestlers first with Starks fighting folk style out of Arizona State and Herman being a student of the Greco-Roman heavy Team Quest camp of Oregon. The difference comes in style and stand-up. Herman is the much more studied and experienced kickboxer. Against Jacoby, Starks ate a steady diet of straight lefts, his sole counter for which was a wild hook that often missed. He was able to shoot under Jacoby’s power shots to secure the takedown, but was all but lost on the feet. Herman on the other hand has been able to stand successfully against his ground-based opponents and even managed to carry two skilled UFC Thai boxers to the judges, defeating one of them. The big difference in this bout is that unlike Jacoby, Herman has the wrestling skills to dictate where the fight goes. Starks will need to shoot often and press hard if he wants to rely on his wrestling to win the match, but even then the drain on his stamina will be significant. Unless he has vastly improved his striking, standing with Herman will only end in a KO victory for “Short Fuse”.

Wild Card: The kind of injury suffered by Ed Herman is the kind that drastically changes a fighter for life. While it may seem that his abilities to defend the shoot haven’t suffered, Herman has yet to face a credible wrestling threat since his return. That could prove a problem if his knee has trouble holding up against the kind of power a Div. I wrestler like Clifford Starks can put behind his shoots.

The Verdict: Barring an issue with his knee, this fight is Herman’s to lose. He is far more well-rounded, far more experienced both on the big stage and in general, and he has the perfect skill set to counter the wrestling of Clifford Starks. Starks is a solid prospect, but he is stepping into much deeper waters against a veteran opponent in Ed Herman. Herman via TKO (Punches), Round 2