As UFC 140 approaches this Saturday, I’m asked by MMA Gospel as well as the millions of Icemigos around the world (give or take millions) to give my picks on the main card. Now, sometimes I have a clear and definite opinion on how I think a fight will go. This is usually a pleasure because all I have to do is explain what I think and why and hope that I will be able to gloat and say “I told you so” rather than shrug and say “the fuck do I know?”.
However, many times I have no real concrete opinion on the potential outcome. In these instances, I’m forced to look carefully at the fighters’ strengths and weaknesses and how they match up against each other. I also look at past fights and allow for momentum and progression by giving more weight to more recent fights. Then I consider various X factors like heart and toughness, how long since their last fight, whether they’ve trained with a new gym with new coaches, if they’re moving to a new weight for the fight, any possible injuries that may be hindering them, and so on.
I consider all of this very carefully for about ten minutes and then I forget all that shit and pretty much fucking guess. My success rate in such instances is about 60%. Here’s my main problem with these damn picks: the odds aren’t factored in. They are when you bet money, why not in accessing the accuracy of picks? For example, if in Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader you picked Ortiz via first-round submission that should be worth at least 25x more on the accuracy points as say, picking Couture via first-round TKO against James Toney. But if we’re going to indulge in prognostication why not go balls out? So, here’s how the main card of UFC 140 will go down. Exactly. If you don’t want spoilers, I suggest not reading any further but instead waiting until after UFC 140 and coming back and being completely amazed by my psychic powers. Continue reading »